Bondonomics
RISK OF RECESSION
History Is Not on Our Side
This is the danger zone. The bond yield curve was inverted for a while and has just started to normalize — a pattern that has reliably preceded major market crashes in the past. On top of that, if the Fed Funds Rate is dropping fast, it often means the economy is already slipping. Historically, this combo is the market's version of a flashing neon warning sign. Buckle up — we're likely within a year of a possible downturn.
Bond Spread Vs FED Funds Rate
One goes up as the other goes downUnderstanding Why is vital
US Bond Curve Analysis
Use slider to see the Bond Curveon any week back to 1963